Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney's Mufasa: The Lion King are set for a tight box office race this holiday season, with early tracking giving Sonic a slight edge.

Why it matters: Sonic 3 is benefiting from a surge in buzz after its second trailer, while Disney plans to ramp up Mufasa's marketing campaign, leveraging early ticket sales.

  • Per Deadline, both are tracking ahead of last year's holiday hits, Wonka (at $39 million) and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (at $27.6 million).

By the numbers: Sonic 3 is projected to open at or above $55 million, ahead of Mufasa’s estimated $50 million.

  • First-choice polling favours Sonic 3 (11%) over Mufasa (7%), but Mufasa leads in overall audience interest, 50% to 47%.
  • Sonic 3's tracking is slightly below its predecessors (The 2020 film opened at $58 million, while 2022 opened at $72.1 million).

What to watch: Family films often see strong holiday legs, with Christmas-week releases sometimes multiplying their opening weekend by five times.

  • The ultimate box office winner may not be decided until well after 25 December.